Ho Ho Ho!!!

The trading range for Hang Seng Index futures was between 22405-22617 (212) for the past three days. Spot month futures finished at 22494 (-30) at today's closing, cash market closed at 22498, dropped 89.63 with the turnover of $64.847 billion.

Although it is futures contracts rollover period where the spot month futures is expiring on Friday; the market is quiet as we are entering the holiday season and the most inactive month of the year- December!

This is the month where retail and institutional investors take time off from work and switch off from the market; spending quality time with family or taking a long holiday in overseas!

Speaking about overseas travel, we guess the business in airline and some of the major tourist spots might be affected due to recent Paris attack and a few airline disaster in recent years. Investing in airlines and tourism stocks could be a bumpy journey. At this juncture, is this an opportunity to look at these stocks? Or should we stay away from them?

When we invested in China Travel Hong Kong (HK: 308) back in November 2013, it was trading at $1.50. In those days, Hong Kong dollar was weaker compared to today, attracted lots of tourists especially from Mainland China. Today, the share price closed at $3.25, which is at one month low, retraced from 52 weeks high at $3.85. We are considering, should we remain as their shareholder?

We are looking forward to December. This is the time where we can sit down and plan for the year of 2016; to review our performance and portfolio, to learn about our investment mistakes and to recharge our battery and getting ready for a brand new year!

Apex Equity Holdings Bhd

One of J&M investing rules is, invest in the business and company we know and familiar with. This is one of the way to reduce the risk of failed investment and capital protection.

Investing in the stock market is not a get rich quick game. It requires vision, patience and holding power. Invest in stocks is like running a business. You need time to build and expand the business; plus a good management team to do the work.

Instead of running the business on our own; our job at J&M is to spend time and effort to look for quality business at attractive price with good management team to work for us. Therefore, we invest in company who offer good dividend payout and the potential for business expansion.

Since we are in the finance industry, we love Stock Exchange, stock broking, securities and investment firms. We sold our shares in Apex Equity Holdings Bhd (MY: 5088), including dividend payout and capital appreciation, the return is 33 percent within a year. For a volatile market like this year, we are happy with such a return.

Buy on dips, market ended higher!

Forget the news from Paris! Retail and institutional investors took this opportunity to buy on dips. The market rebounded and finished off higher at the end of the week, although there was a panic selling on Monday!

Hang Seng Index broke below 22000 on Monday morning, but the market very quickly rebounded and ended higher on Friday. Closing at 22754.72, up 254.50 for cash market; the November futures contract finished at 22761 (+278). Range of the week for futures was traded between 21818-22822 (1004).

For KL market, cash closed at 1661.89 (+1.83), November futures closed down 2 at 1656.50. Spot futures was traded between 1634-1674.5 (40.5) last week.

Looking at the chart for Hang Seng and KLCI Index, they seems like on a downtrend channel. As next week is final week of the month, there will be futures contracts rollover and hence, we expect market to be volatile and range trading. 

For Hang Seng, upside resistant is at 23000, next 23500. Downside support 22250, next 21900. For KL market, the resistant are 1675 and 1700; support 1650 and lower-1625. 

Suntori Hibiki

We added two collectible items into our portfolio. Opps, it should be our collections in the mini bar. There are the limited edition Suntori Hibiki 17 years and Suntori Hibiki 21 years. Fresh from Japan!

US rate hike

The Federal Reserve had been talking about raising interest rate for months. We'll only know whether this ongoing topic will becomes a reality in coming December.

The US dollar has been the best performing currency for the year. Trading at 1USD= RM4.294 today, year to date Ringgit is almost 21 percent weaken against USD.

If the rate hike is confirmed in December, we are not surprised to see US Dollar surged above RM4.50 in short term. However, US dollar had rallied for a year. Short term correction might sent USD/RM below RM4, says around RM3.80. 

Since HK dollar is pegged to US dollar, we will convert more HK dollar for our Hong Kong portfolio if Ringgit is strengthened.

Suntory Yamazaki 18 Years

Apart from investing in stocks, currencies and properties; we are also interested in collectible items such as liquor and coca cola, just to name a few.

A year ago, we requested a friend who traveled to Japan bought us some Japanese Whisky- Suntory Yamazaki 18 years. At that time of buying, we just wanted to collect and display in our mini bar.

The whisky is intact and sitting in our mini bar. Recently we are surprised to find that the price had doubled as Yamazaki 18 years won the "Best in show other Whisky Category" and "Double Gold Medal Award" at the San Francisco World Spirits Competition. Not only that, thanks to weakening of our Ringgit, it is more expensive to buy now compare to a year ago.

We are glad we bought it. In the world of investing, sometimes it is not about the money we've made, it is about the future we can foresee, the right decision we made and most importantly, we execute what we analysed and planned.

Paris attacks

We are sorry to hear about what happened in Paris. Condolence to the victims and their families. For those who are in Paris, please stay safe.

Overnight Dow Jones closed down 202 at 17245. With weaknesses in market and what happened in Paris, we think market sentiments is no good and another round of selling might begin.

Hang Seng Index closed lower on Friday despite the news of recommendation to buy MSCI Hong Kong sent the market rallied 536 points on Thursday. HSI closed down 2.15% at 22396.14; November futures closed at 22319 (-586). Range of the week for futures was traded between 22243-22988 (745).

We expect market to open lower on Monday. Near support is 22000. If HSI unable to hold above 22000, further support is 21600. On the upside, 22400 is near resistant.

KLCI Index closed at 1658.91 (-4.29) while futures ended at 1654.50 (+2.50). Futures was traded between 1632.50-1691.00 (58.50) for the entire week. Resistant for KLCI is at 1675. On the downside, support for KLCI is seen at 1625, next 1590.

HSI rallies 536 points

Overnight Dow Jones closed down 55 points. After closing down for five consecutive days, Hang Seng Index today turned around the trend and rallied 536.75 points, closed at 22888.92. The November futures opened at 22301 and ended up 546 points at 22905. 

For us who are active in the futures market, we think Hang Seng Index is range trading around 22400-22900. Risk is lower for day traders; for overnight traders, they are either making big bucks or having whipsaw. It is important to exercise risk and capital management when in the market. 

At the current market condition, we think every dips is a buying opportunity and we will not chase into buying any stocks if the price had gone up. If we missed it, we'll give it a go and treasure hunt again. If we have paper profit, we'll consider to sell it, or hold on to it. No matter how, we'll have an exit price in our mind. 

We decided to sell Convoy Financial Service (HK: 1019), as the rally had brought us 11% profit within days. We might have a bigger profit tomorrow or later, but who knows?! We are happy to cash in now and look for better opportunities. 

As for KLCI Index, the cash market closed at 1663.2 (-2.12) and futures closed +1 at 1652. Spot futures was traded between 1638.5-1660.5 (22). 

US dragged down HSI

DJIA closed down 179.85 at 17730.48 on Monday closing. Following US, Hang Seng Index opened almost 200 points gap down this morning.

The cash market closed at 22401.70 at the end of the day, down 325.07. As for November futures, opened at 22430, highest reached 22467. Market went further down in the afternoon, lowest touched 22243 and closed at 22372 (-236).

Depending on how DJIA close tonight. We see 22000 as crucial support, upside resistant 22500, next level 22800.

There is no KLCI Index today, as it is Deepavali holiday in Malaysia.

Buy and sell OR buy and hold?

Do you always ask yourself, what is the investment strategy before you buy a stock. Buy and sell once you see profit? Or buy and hold for more profits? Is this mid to long term investment? Or short term speculation? It is important to have a plan before we enter the market. This is because human tends to be emotional when in the market, driven by fear-when market tumbles; by greed when market soars!

In a volatile market like Hong Kong market, we always set a target price to take profit; or a cut loss point to protect our capital. Even in a bull market, the paper profit can easily turns into paper loss if there is no investment or trading plan. Therefore, it is important to have an exit price, to secure the profit, to cash in and to grow the capital.

Different market requires different strategy. In a less volatile market like Malaysia market, ongoing buy sell not only hard to generate profit, it is also drain our mental energy. We'll only become brokers' best friend-by generating more commission and income for them. Sometimes, buy and hold is more suitable in Malaysia market. However, market changed and different strategy need to apply in different market condition. We have to adapt to market changes and act accordingly.

It is always a right move to exit market when we see paper profit, lock in the cash into our account. This is what we thought. We sold Emperor Capital Group (HK:717), made 8% return in less than two weeks. Not a bad deal. At least, it is better than fix deposit rate in Malaysia which is around 3.10% per year. Meanwhile, we parked our capital into another financial service company, Convoy Financial Holdings (HK:1019), an independent insurance and MPF schemes brokerage firm in Hong Kong.

For Hang Seng Index, it closed at 22726.77 (-140.56) and spot futures closed almost day low at 22608, down 130. Range of the day for Hang Seng futures is between 22598-22951 (353).

Market moving into consolidation soon

Hang Seng Index and its November futures contract closed at 22867.33 and 22738, respectively. The cash market closed down 183.71, futures down 225 points. Range of the week for futures was traded between 22230-23347 (1117).

Dow Jones rose 46 points on Friday closing at 17910. For HSI, we see Index will be moving between 21988 and 23482 if market break above 23000. Near support is at 22440.

There is another 8 trading weeks till we say hello to 2016. 2015 had been a volatile year, beginning with an uptrend, followed by a downtrend in second half of the year. It is not surprise to see market moving into consolidation from now or in a few weeks time, as fund managers and investors are closing their position, taking time off from the market till next year. 

For KLCI Index, cash market closed at 1685.70 (-2.84), futures closed +4.5 at 1686.50. The weekly range for this month futures contract was between 1646-1694.5 (48.5). Resistant for KLCI remained at 1725, immediate support 1675, next level 1640. 

Gold price is close to 5 year low

The Comex Gold is trading at $1106/oz, very close to one year low at $1085 back in August this year. Not only that, the current gold price is trading near five year low. The historical record price was at $1920 in August 2011. Since then, gold price is in declining stage. Looking at the chart, the current support is at $1050.  

The main factor affects gold price movement is the US interest rate. The rate hike will sent the gold price further down south whereas holding on the rate will see a break up in gold price. At this stage, we will not speculate in gold futures. In fact, we are interested in holding physical gold such as gold bar or gold jewellery from the retail shop. We believe this is the best bargain hunting and Christmas present. 

KLCI up 0.5% following regional market

Following DJIA and the regional markets in positive territory, KLCI Index broke the resistant 1680. Range of the day for spot futures contract traded between 1681-1690 (9), closed at 1689.50 (+14.5). For cash market, FBM KLCI closed at 1685.62 (+8.06). Resistant for KLCI is at 1725, next target 1750. On the downside, support is at 1650 and 1625.

It was rumours...

It was a roller coaster ride in Hong Kong market today. It wasn't the real announcement of Shenzen-Hong Kong connect; it was the spread of news according to an article written by PBOC goverver sited in May that SZ-HK connect will be launced latest by this year.

No short covering happened in the afternoon session. In fact, it was a turnaround trend- long liquidation!

HSI opened at 23200 and market dropped 319 points within minutes. Support at 22800, the lowest HSI went in second session was 22881 and finally November futures closed at 23115 (+535). Cash market closed at 23053.57 (+2.15%).

For stocks, Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HK:388) closed lower at $209, +4.7%. The Emperor Capital Group (HK:717) closed at $0.70, +9%.

HSI jumped 3% in morning session

Hong Kong market jumped 3% in the morning session. The market surged after the announcement of Shenzen-Hong Kong connect will be launched by this year. Cash market closed at 23272.66, +3.12% and November futures closed up 704 at 23284 in morning session. Range of the day for futures market is between 22661-23347 (686). Three day range for Hang Seng Index spot futures is 1117 points.

Will Hong Kong Index further up in the afternoon market? We believe it might if short covering happened. Resistant is at 23600. We see immediate support at 23000. Further down, 22800 previously was resistant  is now the next support.  

The Shenzen-Hong Kong news is favor to the finance and banking stocks. Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HK: 388) closed up 9% and most of the securities companies share price is positive, including the Emperor Capital Group (HK:717) we are holding, up 15% in the morning session. 

Let's see what happen to the market by today's closing. 

Shanghai Disneyland

Shanghai Disneyland is the 6th Disneyland which is scheduled to open in early 2016. This is a joint venture between The Walt Disney Company and the government owned Shanghai Sendi Group. The opening of new Disneyland in Shanghai will create many jobs opportunities and give Shanghai economy a boost, especially to the tourism and hotel industry.

As a result, Shanghai Jinjiang International Hotels Group (HK: 2006) listed in Hong Kong Stock Exchange is in advantage. The group has various hotels in Shanghai as well as other parts of China. As a subsidiary of Shanghai Sendi Group, it is also one of the biggest travel agency in China. 

The share price of Jinjiang Hotel closed at $2.71, +7.5% in Hong Kong market today. The one year range for the share price is between $2.02 and $4.14.

We believe the opening of upcoming Disneyland will bring in more business for Jinjiang Hotel Group. In long term, this is good for the company's share price.

The Best Investment

We think the best investments we made so far, is not from stocks, futures, properties, bonds or business...In fact, the best investment we made is invest on ourselves.

We could not have made money without proper financial knowledge. We could have made lots of mistakes and incurred heavy financial losses if we did not educate ourselves. We spent lots of time and effort in reading, researching, learning from successful people and implementing our strategy. Failed, start all over again and repeat all the processes...

Different financial instrument comes in handy at different stage of financial cycle. Without educating ourselves with appropriate risk management and know how and what should do, we could not have come so far along the financial journey.

Though we are not making billions right now, we are glad we are wealthy, living peacefully and happily, and most importantly, enjoying what we are doing.

The best investments is not invest to generate more money, it is to invest in ourselves, be healthy and happy.

What's next in November?

Traditionally, investors and fund managers will continue buying in November in order to present nice account balance during end of the year for their clients.

Since global stock markets retraced from 52 weeks high, it is rational to buy now rather to sell now.

However, since US Fed Reserve hold on the rate hike now and further discuss in December. Will investors and fund managers having the same view as years before to buy for window dressing? Is everyone getting cautious in the market? If it is time to raise rate, why is Fed keep the decision indecisive? 

Hang Seng cash market closed at 22640.04 (-179.90), November futures closed at 22684 (-78). Range of the week for futures market was between 22604-23419 (811). Overnight Dow Jones closed -92.26 at 17663.54. For Hang Seng Index, market will open lower on Monday. The first support we see is at 22450, further support is target at 21900. On the upside, any rebound will see market retest 22800- 23000.

For KLCI Index, cash market closed at 1665.71 (-1.27); November futures closed at 1663 (+8). We think there is a chance the support at 1640 will break and goes lower, further support-1615. On the upside, we remain resistant at 1680. Due to 1MDB issues, we think Malaysia market is having obstacles to break above 1800 in near term as investors confidence is the key factor to push up market. 

Though investors remain cautious at current market uncertainty, we think it's time to spend time and effort to do some treasure hunt.