Bye Bye 2015

On the last day of 2015, this is how market closed.

Hang Seng Index settled below 22000 at 21914.40 (+32.25); KLCI Index finished below 1700 at 1692.51 (-0.63).

For other regional markets, Singapore STI ended at 2882.73 (-2.78). Shanghai Composite Index and Australia ASX200 closed in negative territory, down 0.93% and 0.45% respectively. 

The is no trading for Japan and European market except UK, where FTSE down 0.5% closed at 6242.32 on the final trading day of the year. As for US, we will only know how the market close when we wake up tomorrow.

We would like to wish everyone a happy holiday and happy new year! Enjoy last day of the year as we will not see 2015 again; in fact we are happy and very looking forward to a brand new year-2016!

Happy Boxing Day!

Merry Christmas and Happy Boxing Day! We hope everyone had a great holiday, enjoyed the food and the Christmas presents. 

In less than a week, we are going to wave goodbye to 2015 and say hello to 2016. How is the year of 2015 treating you? Are you happy and satisfied with what you have achieved this year?

The market is like our life journey with lots of ups and downs. No matter how good life is or how bad the days are, it is important to stay healthy and happy. Whatever goes up will come down; whatever comes down will go up. A sideways market is hard to make money, same as a stagnant life will stays uninteresting.

No matter how much money we made, it is important to have financial management. Keep a portion of money as emergency funds, use the money for new investments; and not to forget, donate it as charity to help people who need help and spend the money to make ourselves happy. If there is financial losses this year, don't forget to review the mistakes, learn about it and move on. The market is always there and there will be one day we will make money.

Back to market. What will market doing in the coming 2016? After first interest rate hike in US, will other countries following US footstep? How is Europe crisis affecting the market? Nearer to home, is China slowing down going to affect Hong Kong and the rest of the world?

Hang Seng Index whole year range was trading between 20368-28589. The crucial psychological support is at 20000. If market broke below 20000, the downside range for Hang Seng Index is between 16000-19800. On the upside, 22000 had been tested a few times in recent weeks; if the market can stand firm above 22000, there is a chance HSI will moves towards 24000 or higher to 26000. 

Back at home, our Ringgit had been one of the worst performing currencies in South East Asia Region due to GST implementation and 1MDB issues. These had caused our market trending down and KLCI Index was trading between 1504-1807 for this year. Looking at KLCI Index, 1600 is the crucial support, further down, we see support at 1500, next 1300. On the upside, if market can sustain above 1750, we might have a chance to see 1800 or perhaps a record high? 

No matter how the market moves, whether we made or lost money; our life motto is to stay happy and healthy and enjoying what we are doing. We hope you had a fantastic 2015 and wishing you a great year ahead. 

Happy reading and happy investing!

Kavalan's Fino & Seppelt

Though we were away from the trading desk last week, we got ourselves some bargain stocks. We bought Taiwan Origin Single Malt Whisky- Kavalan Solist Fino Sherry Cask and the Australian based Seppelt Original Sparkling Shiraz. 

The awards winning Kavalan's Fino is for collection purpose; added into our collectible items portfolio and displayed in the mini bar. As for the Sparkling Shiraz, this is one of our favourite red wine and we are going to enjoy it during this holiday season.

Dow tumbled 367 points

We were away for a beach holiday and lost touch with what happened in the market this week. We just knew Dow Jones closed down 367.29 points @ 17128.55 on Friday closing and finally the US interest rate is raised after months of talking and speculating.

Hang Seng Index had a wild swing in the past one week. After broke below 21000 on Monday, the market rebounded to above 22000. Cash market closed @ 21755.56 (-116.50) and spot futures dropped 37 points, ended at 21787 on Friday evening. Range of the week for December futures was between 20985-22009 (1024).

KLCI Index closed at 1643.90, down 12.62 points while December futures finished at 1642 (-18). Range of the week for spot futures was between 1607.50- 1663.00 (55.50).

Dow slumped 309 points

As the date is closer towards last US Federal meeting of the year, the market is moving lower too. Comparing the index as of yesterday's closing and Dec 2014; the market is lower than last Christmas.

Hang Seng Index broke below important support- 21800. Cash market closed down 240.56 @ 21464.05; December futures dropped 243, finished at 21387. Range of the week for December futures was trading between 21385-22388 (1003).

With overnight Dow Jones tumbled 309.54 closing at 17265.21; the Asian market will open in negative territory on Monday morning.

Will Hang Seng Index break below 21000 again on Monday? We believe it is possible. The next crucial support after breaking below 21000 is 20249, the lowest level since this September. Having said that, since HSI closed in negative territory for five consecutive days, it is not surprised to see technical rebound. Upside resistance is at 21770.

As for KLCI Index, cash market closed down 0.52% at 1640.14. December futures ended at 1635.50 (-8.0). The trading range for December futures in this week was between 1632-1676 (44.0). Since KLCI broke below the crucial support @1650, further down are support at 1600, 1575. If market rebound, we see resistant at 1670.

J&M Investing mistakes

When we looked at what we achieved today, especially this year, we made good money.

Before we came to this stage, we actually paid a lot of tuition fees to learn about the market; lost money in trading and along the way learn about trading vs investing, as well as some life experiences.

There are investing mistakes we could have avoided and not losing money. But, these are the mistakes we made and we will remember forever in order not to repeat again. We think it is alright to lose money, but not okay to lose confidence. Losing confidence is the worst thing can happen as this will affect our judgement and action towards investing decision in the future. Losing confidence might cause us not having the chance to see ourselves moving into a successful financial journey.

What had we done so badly in the past that we have to remember not to repeat again?

1. No knowing what we invest or speculate

Before we invest or speculate in a stocks, it is important to find out about the company's background and work out the investing capital. This is to reduce the risk of failed investment and capital protection. If we are lazy to do this simple homework, why not we just spend the money or donate to the needy.

2. No exit plan when we have paper profit

Very often when we see paper profit in our portfolio, our greed kicked in and made us thought we will never lose money. When we are not cautious about the risk we are facing or not alert about protecting our profit, it is the most dangerous time as the winnings could turn sour.

3. Invest in the stocks we previously made money

Never fall in love with our investment especially with those we had made money previously! Because of the decision we made, picking the right stock at the right time, we might have the thought of we could made money again with the same stocks. No doubt, we might made money again. But sometimes it might not be the case. When the trend is over, jumping into the stocks we previously made money could made us lose more than what we made.

4. Jump into the market because afraid to lose the trade

It is not difficult to made small money, but big profit? It requires hard work, patience, timing and a bit of luck. Just because we afraid of missing the chance to make money and jump into the market; chances are we will lose money...

5. Invest or trade with correct mindset

Correct mindset is necessary when we are trading or investing. Sometimes we mixed up between trading and investing and therefore we could be very headache when market is against us. Trading usually is a short time frame; if we are at a wrong position, we need to cut our losses in order to protect our capital. Investing is a longer time frame and we need to handle the volatility before we see the result. If we don't have the correct mindset, our decision and action can put our capital in a dangerous position.

6. No emotional trading or investing

Emotional came in normally when we see the market is in our favour, but we did not act according to our plan. Just like Blackmores, if we don't calm ourselves and rush in to buy the shares at any price anytime, we wouldn't know when is the trend over.

7. Following tips

With our networking, it is possible to get investing tips anytime. BUT, how many tips can we follow and how accurate are there? By the time it reached us, is that the beginning or the end of the trend? It is no harm to follow the tips, provided we do our own research.

Conclusion: These are the investing mistakes J&M did in the past. These can be the common mistakes most investors made too. It is not a big deal, but if recognising them can help us improve ourselves and our financial situation, why not?

Hung Fook Tong Group Holdings

Overnight Dow Jones closed down 117 @ 17730.51. Following US and the regional market, Hang Seng Index opened gap down this morning. The worse than expected China export data released this morning caused HSI sank lower. At closing, Hang Seng Index dropped 298.09 @ 21905.13; spot month futures tumbled 456 points, finished at 21824.

Despite the sell down in regional market, one of the stock in our portfolio surged 17.8 percent at closing. We wonder is this a dead cat bourse? Or the beginning of the uptrend.

We have been holding Hung Fook Tong (HK:1446) for quite some time. We first came across Hung Fook Tong was during a trip to Hong Kong before 1446 went on IPO. The shop caught our attention, as it has many branches located just right before the MRT entrance barrier and shopping malls.

Hung Fook Tong Group is one of the top retailer of Chinese herbal drinks, soups, tortoise herbal jelly and other food products in Hong Kong. Their main retail business is in Hong Kong, Guangzhou and Shanghai. The group acts as a wholesaler to the distributors and supermarkets in Hong Kong and Mainland China; they also export long shelf-life products to overseas, including Malaysia.

The company share price closed at $0.86 today. One year range is between $0.61- $1.22; below the IPO price at $1.30.

Performance Review

No matter what happen to the market in the coming week till last day of the year, we are going to take a break from the market. We think we have achieved quite a lot this year, so we deserved a break until when we are ready.

We always believe we need to rest, switch off from the market and come back again with a fresh mind. Of course, if market rally and our portfolio have a nice paper profit, we don't mind to lock in the profit; and if market drops badly, which we think unlikely, we will continue bargain hunting.

To sum up the year of 2015, we enjoyed the roller coaster ride. During the downtrend, we've collected some undervalue stocks which we think need to keep for months or years. Meanwhile, we also collected some blue chip and REITS, attracted by their dividend payout.

When market rally, we sold our holdings; keep the cash and turn it into other investments. So far, we are quite happy with the result and hopefully we'll perform better in the coming years.

Our portfolio's result year to date:

Australia: +25%

Hong Kong: +14%

Malaysia: +5.5%

REITS: +4%

The above result does not include the dividend and interest received throughout the year. As our Ringgit had depreciated quite badly against other currencies, to us it's a bonus since our portfolio consists of Australian Dollar, Japanese Yen, Hong Kong and Singapore dollar, not to mention Chinese Yuan which just included into SDR.

We'll remain our currencies portfolio for the time being. Will increase our holdings if Ringgit strengthened; otherwise, we'll travel to these destinations to spend the currencies.

Volatile week

A word to wrap up what happened in the market this week: volatility!

Traders love this week! The volatility creates making money opportunity. Provided you stand on the right side- long when market tumbles, short while market rally. We bet standing on the wrong side could be very hurt- financially and mentally.

Overnight Dow Jones surged 369.96 on Friday closing, finished at 17847.63. We see Asian market will open higher on Monday morning. But after that, will the Santa rally continue? Or every rally is another selling opportunity?

Hang Seng Index closed down 181.12 at 22235.89; December futures closed at 22152, down 265. The range of the week for spot futures was traded between 21856-22576 (720). For KLCI Index, the cash market closed at 1667.87 (-6.05), spot futures closed at 1661.5 (-7.5).

Where is gold heading?

The precious metal- gold used to be the safe haven during global financial crisis broke 52 weeks low today, lowest went to $1045.85 per ounce, now rebound to $1056 after US Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen hinted very high possibility of interest rate hike in the coming policy meeting between 15-16 Dec.

In fact, gold had reached the lowest level since February 2010. Where is this precious commodity heading?

Blackmores Ltd

We always stay in touch with the market and pay attention to the potential upside stocks. Before we pull the trigger to invest in them, we will do a thorough research about the company background and decide when to buy by looking at the technical chart.

Of course, we do not always invest on all the research we did.

We couldn't remember what was the reason we didn't pull the trigger on Blackmores Ltd (AU: BKL), an Australian company specialize in manufacturing vitamin and natural health products.

At that time of research, the share price of Blackmores Ltd was trading at $30; if not mistaken, it should be in the year of 2014. When we looked at the share price yesterday, we were shocked to find that the stocks was at $185! 500 percent increment from the price we last saw! 

Well, these are the things will happen along the investing journey! Sometimes, we might missed the chances of making big money, just like Blackmores Ltd! Sometimes we might just pocket small profit before the big uptrend happens! Or, we might be too late to join the bandwagon; as soon as we invested, the trend turnaround.

That's why we have our J&M investing rules- no emotional trading or investing, never chase a stock we've missed without doing homework, never fall in love with your investment, never look back on a stocks we've sold, never consider to invest in the stocks we had previously made money...

We always believe if we missed this opportunity, there will always be a better one coming soon. We believe there will always be a right stock at the right time bring us a big fat profit. Have we meet the right stock at the right time yet? Yes, we did! And we believe there is more to come in the future.

Is December rally coming soon?

While we thought market could be quiet ahead of holiday season, it's actually not! All the market participants still taking every minute to make money during market volatility.

Coming into December, Hang Seng Index futures surprised us with opened 295 points higher in the morning after confirmation of Chinese RMB being included in benchmark SDR currency basket.

The news reversed yesterday's downtrend, sending the market from 22098 in the morning to 22489 (391) in the afternoon. Hang Seng Index spot futures ended at 22388 (+479) on the first day of December while cash market closed up 384.93 at 22381.35.

The market had been range trading lately. Every rally is a selling opportunity while every dips in a buying opportunity. Will the range trading trend ended soon?

Looking at the chart, the resistant is daily MA100- 22831. If Dow Jones closed in positive territory plus triple digit tonight, there's a chance of Hong Kong market break up and we'll see December market rally. On the other hand, if HSI broke below 22200 again, we are afraid we'll see 22000, 21800 or lower...