Bye Bye 2015

On the last day of 2015, this is how market closed.

Hang Seng Index settled below 22000 at 21914.40 (+32.25); KLCI Index finished below 1700 at 1692.51 (-0.63).

For other regional markets, Singapore STI ended at 2882.73 (-2.78). Shanghai Composite Index and Australia ASX200 closed in negative territory, down 0.93% and 0.45% respectively. 

The is no trading for Japan and European market except UK, where FTSE down 0.5% closed at 6242.32 on the final trading day of the year. As for US, we will only know how the market close when we wake up tomorrow.

We would like to wish everyone a happy holiday and happy new year! Enjoy last day of the year as we will not see 2015 again; in fact we are happy and very looking forward to a brand new year-2016!

Happy Boxing Day!

Merry Christmas and Happy Boxing Day! We hope everyone had a great holiday, enjoyed the food and the Christmas presents. 

In less than a week, we are going to wave goodbye to 2015 and say hello to 2016. How is the year of 2015 treating you? Are you happy and satisfied with what you have achieved this year?

The market is like our life journey with lots of ups and downs. No matter how good life is or how bad the days are, it is important to stay healthy and happy. Whatever goes up will come down; whatever comes down will go up. A sideways market is hard to make money, same as a stagnant life will stays uninteresting.

No matter how much money we made, it is important to have financial management. Keep a portion of money as emergency funds, use the money for new investments; and not to forget, donate it as charity to help people who need help and spend the money to make ourselves happy. If there is financial losses this year, don't forget to review the mistakes, learn about it and move on. The market is always there and there will be one day we will make money.

Back to market. What will market doing in the coming 2016? After first interest rate hike in US, will other countries following US footstep? How is Europe crisis affecting the market? Nearer to home, is China slowing down going to affect Hong Kong and the rest of the world?

Hang Seng Index whole year range was trading between 20368-28589. The crucial psychological support is at 20000. If market broke below 20000, the downside range for Hang Seng Index is between 16000-19800. On the upside, 22000 had been tested a few times in recent weeks; if the market can stand firm above 22000, there is a chance HSI will moves towards 24000 or higher to 26000. 

Back at home, our Ringgit had been one of the worst performing currencies in South East Asia Region due to GST implementation and 1MDB issues. These had caused our market trending down and KLCI Index was trading between 1504-1807 for this year. Looking at KLCI Index, 1600 is the crucial support, further down, we see support at 1500, next 1300. On the upside, if market can sustain above 1750, we might have a chance to see 1800 or perhaps a record high? 

No matter how the market moves, whether we made or lost money; our life motto is to stay happy and healthy and enjoying what we are doing. We hope you had a fantastic 2015 and wishing you a great year ahead. 

Happy reading and happy investing!

Kavalan's Fino & Seppelt

Though we were away from the trading desk last week, we got ourselves some bargain stocks. We bought Taiwan Origin Single Malt Whisky- Kavalan Solist Fino Sherry Cask and the Australian based Seppelt Original Sparkling Shiraz. 

The awards winning Kavalan's Fino is for collection purpose; added into our collectible items portfolio and displayed in the mini bar. As for the Sparkling Shiraz, this is one of our favourite red wine and we are going to enjoy it during this holiday season.

Dow tumbled 367 points

We were away for a beach holiday and lost touch with what happened in the market this week. We just knew Dow Jones closed down 367.29 points @ 17128.55 on Friday closing and finally the US interest rate is raised after months of talking and speculating.

Hang Seng Index had a wild swing in the past one week. After broke below 21000 on Monday, the market rebounded to above 22000. Cash market closed @ 21755.56 (-116.50) and spot futures dropped 37 points, ended at 21787 on Friday evening. Range of the week for December futures was between 20985-22009 (1024).

KLCI Index closed at 1643.90, down 12.62 points while December futures finished at 1642 (-18). Range of the week for spot futures was between 1607.50- 1663.00 (55.50).

Dow slumped 309 points

As the date is closer towards last US Federal meeting of the year, the market is moving lower too. Comparing the index as of yesterday's closing and Dec 2014; the market is lower than last Christmas.

Hang Seng Index broke below important support- 21800. Cash market closed down 240.56 @ 21464.05; December futures dropped 243, finished at 21387. Range of the week for December futures was trading between 21385-22388 (1003).

With overnight Dow Jones tumbled 309.54 closing at 17265.21; the Asian market will open in negative territory on Monday morning.

Will Hang Seng Index break below 21000 again on Monday? We believe it is possible. The next crucial support after breaking below 21000 is 20249, the lowest level since this September. Having said that, since HSI closed in negative territory for five consecutive days, it is not surprised to see technical rebound. Upside resistance is at 21770.

As for KLCI Index, cash market closed down 0.52% at 1640.14. December futures ended at 1635.50 (-8.0). The trading range for December futures in this week was between 1632-1676 (44.0). Since KLCI broke below the crucial support @1650, further down are support at 1600, 1575. If market rebound, we see resistant at 1670.

J&M Investing mistakes

When we looked at what we achieved today, especially this year, we made good money.

Before we came to this stage, we actually paid a lot of tuition fees to learn about the market; lost money in trading and along the way learn about trading vs investing, as well as some life experiences.

There are investing mistakes we could have avoided and not losing money. But, these are the mistakes we made and we will remember forever in order not to repeat again. We think it is alright to lose money, but not okay to lose confidence. Losing confidence is the worst thing can happen as this will affect our judgement and action towards investing decision in the future. Losing confidence might cause us not having the chance to see ourselves moving into a successful financial journey.

What had we done so badly in the past that we have to remember not to repeat again?

1. No knowing what we invest or speculate

Before we invest or speculate in a stocks, it is important to find out about the company's background and work out the investing capital. This is to reduce the risk of failed investment and capital protection. If we are lazy to do this simple homework, why not we just spend the money or donate to the needy.

2. No exit plan when we have paper profit

Very often when we see paper profit in our portfolio, our greed kicked in and made us thought we will never lose money. When we are not cautious about the risk we are facing or not alert about protecting our profit, it is the most dangerous time as the winnings could turn sour.

3. Invest in the stocks we previously made money

Never fall in love with our investment especially with those we had made money previously! Because of the decision we made, picking the right stock at the right time, we might have the thought of we could made money again with the same stocks. No doubt, we might made money again. But sometimes it might not be the case. When the trend is over, jumping into the stocks we previously made money could made us lose more than what we made.

4. Jump into the market because afraid to lose the trade

It is not difficult to made small money, but big profit? It requires hard work, patience, timing and a bit of luck. Just because we afraid of missing the chance to make money and jump into the market; chances are we will lose money...

5. Invest or trade with correct mindset

Correct mindset is necessary when we are trading or investing. Sometimes we mixed up between trading and investing and therefore we could be very headache when market is against us. Trading usually is a short time frame; if we are at a wrong position, we need to cut our losses in order to protect our capital. Investing is a longer time frame and we need to handle the volatility before we see the result. If we don't have the correct mindset, our decision and action can put our capital in a dangerous position.

6. No emotional trading or investing

Emotional came in normally when we see the market is in our favour, but we did not act according to our plan. Just like Blackmores, if we don't calm ourselves and rush in to buy the shares at any price anytime, we wouldn't know when is the trend over.

7. Following tips

With our networking, it is possible to get investing tips anytime. BUT, how many tips can we follow and how accurate are there? By the time it reached us, is that the beginning or the end of the trend? It is no harm to follow the tips, provided we do our own research.

Conclusion: These are the investing mistakes J&M did in the past. These can be the common mistakes most investors made too. It is not a big deal, but if recognising them can help us improve ourselves and our financial situation, why not?

Hung Fook Tong Group Holdings

Overnight Dow Jones closed down 117 @ 17730.51. Following US and the regional market, Hang Seng Index opened gap down this morning. The worse than expected China export data released this morning caused HSI sank lower. At closing, Hang Seng Index dropped 298.09 @ 21905.13; spot month futures tumbled 456 points, finished at 21824.

Despite the sell down in regional market, one of the stock in our portfolio surged 17.8 percent at closing. We wonder is this a dead cat bourse? Or the beginning of the uptrend.

We have been holding Hung Fook Tong (HK:1446) for quite some time. We first came across Hung Fook Tong was during a trip to Hong Kong before 1446 went on IPO. The shop caught our attention, as it has many branches located just right before the MRT entrance barrier and shopping malls.

Hung Fook Tong Group is one of the top retailer of Chinese herbal drinks, soups, tortoise herbal jelly and other food products in Hong Kong. Their main retail business is in Hong Kong, Guangzhou and Shanghai. The group acts as a wholesaler to the distributors and supermarkets in Hong Kong and Mainland China; they also export long shelf-life products to overseas, including Malaysia.

The company share price closed at $0.86 today. One year range is between $0.61- $1.22; below the IPO price at $1.30.

Performance Review

No matter what happen to the market in the coming week till last day of the year, we are going to take a break from the market. We think we have achieved quite a lot this year, so we deserved a break until when we are ready.

We always believe we need to rest, switch off from the market and come back again with a fresh mind. Of course, if market rally and our portfolio have a nice paper profit, we don't mind to lock in the profit; and if market drops badly, which we think unlikely, we will continue bargain hunting.

To sum up the year of 2015, we enjoyed the roller coaster ride. During the downtrend, we've collected some undervalue stocks which we think need to keep for months or years. Meanwhile, we also collected some blue chip and REITS, attracted by their dividend payout.

When market rally, we sold our holdings; keep the cash and turn it into other investments. So far, we are quite happy with the result and hopefully we'll perform better in the coming years.

Our portfolio's result year to date:

Australia: +25%

Hong Kong: +14%

Malaysia: +5.5%

REITS: +4%

The above result does not include the dividend and interest received throughout the year. As our Ringgit had depreciated quite badly against other currencies, to us it's a bonus since our portfolio consists of Australian Dollar, Japanese Yen, Hong Kong and Singapore dollar, not to mention Chinese Yuan which just included into SDR.

We'll remain our currencies portfolio for the time being. Will increase our holdings if Ringgit strengthened; otherwise, we'll travel to these destinations to spend the currencies.

Volatile week

A word to wrap up what happened in the market this week: volatility!

Traders love this week! The volatility creates making money opportunity. Provided you stand on the right side- long when market tumbles, short while market rally. We bet standing on the wrong side could be very hurt- financially and mentally.

Overnight Dow Jones surged 369.96 on Friday closing, finished at 17847.63. We see Asian market will open higher on Monday morning. But after that, will the Santa rally continue? Or every rally is another selling opportunity?

Hang Seng Index closed down 181.12 at 22235.89; December futures closed at 22152, down 265. The range of the week for spot futures was traded between 21856-22576 (720). For KLCI Index, the cash market closed at 1667.87 (-6.05), spot futures closed at 1661.5 (-7.5).

Where is gold heading?

The precious metal- gold used to be the safe haven during global financial crisis broke 52 weeks low today, lowest went to $1045.85 per ounce, now rebound to $1056 after US Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen hinted very high possibility of interest rate hike in the coming policy meeting between 15-16 Dec.

In fact, gold had reached the lowest level since February 2010. Where is this precious commodity heading?

Blackmores Ltd

We always stay in touch with the market and pay attention to the potential upside stocks. Before we pull the trigger to invest in them, we will do a thorough research about the company background and decide when to buy by looking at the technical chart.

Of course, we do not always invest on all the research we did.

We couldn't remember what was the reason we didn't pull the trigger on Blackmores Ltd (AU: BKL), an Australian company specialize in manufacturing vitamin and natural health products.

At that time of research, the share price of Blackmores Ltd was trading at $30; if not mistaken, it should be in the year of 2014. When we looked at the share price yesterday, we were shocked to find that the stocks was at $185! 500 percent increment from the price we last saw! 

Well, these are the things will happen along the investing journey! Sometimes, we might missed the chances of making big money, just like Blackmores Ltd! Sometimes we might just pocket small profit before the big uptrend happens! Or, we might be too late to join the bandwagon; as soon as we invested, the trend turnaround.

That's why we have our J&M investing rules- no emotional trading or investing, never chase a stock we've missed without doing homework, never fall in love with your investment, never look back on a stocks we've sold, never consider to invest in the stocks we had previously made money...

We always believe if we missed this opportunity, there will always be a better one coming soon. We believe there will always be a right stock at the right time bring us a big fat profit. Have we meet the right stock at the right time yet? Yes, we did! And we believe there is more to come in the future.

Is December rally coming soon?

While we thought market could be quiet ahead of holiday season, it's actually not! All the market participants still taking every minute to make money during market volatility.

Coming into December, Hang Seng Index futures surprised us with opened 295 points higher in the morning after confirmation of Chinese RMB being included in benchmark SDR currency basket.

The news reversed yesterday's downtrend, sending the market from 22098 in the morning to 22489 (391) in the afternoon. Hang Seng Index spot futures ended at 22388 (+479) on the first day of December while cash market closed up 384.93 at 22381.35.

The market had been range trading lately. Every rally is a selling opportunity while every dips in a buying opportunity. Will the range trading trend ended soon?

Looking at the chart, the resistant is daily MA100- 22831. If Dow Jones closed in positive territory plus triple digit tonight, there's a chance of Hong Kong market break up and we'll see December market rally. On the other hand, if HSI broke below 22200 again, we are afraid we'll see 22000, 21800 or lower...

Ho Ho Ho!!!

The trading range for Hang Seng Index futures was between 22405-22617 (212) for the past three days. Spot month futures finished at 22494 (-30) at today's closing, cash market closed at 22498, dropped 89.63 with the turnover of $64.847 billion.

Although it is futures contracts rollover period where the spot month futures is expiring on Friday; the market is quiet as we are entering the holiday season and the most inactive month of the year- December!

This is the month where retail and institutional investors take time off from work and switch off from the market; spending quality time with family or taking a long holiday in overseas!

Speaking about overseas travel, we guess the business in airline and some of the major tourist spots might be affected due to recent Paris attack and a few airline disaster in recent years. Investing in airlines and tourism stocks could be a bumpy journey. At this juncture, is this an opportunity to look at these stocks? Or should we stay away from them?

When we invested in China Travel Hong Kong (HK: 308) back in November 2013, it was trading at $1.50. In those days, Hong Kong dollar was weaker compared to today, attracted lots of tourists especially from Mainland China. Today, the share price closed at $3.25, which is at one month low, retraced from 52 weeks high at $3.85. We are considering, should we remain as their shareholder?

We are looking forward to December. This is the time where we can sit down and plan for the year of 2016; to review our performance and portfolio, to learn about our investment mistakes and to recharge our battery and getting ready for a brand new year!

Apex Equity Holdings Bhd

One of J&M investing rules is, invest in the business and company we know and familiar with. This is one of the way to reduce the risk of failed investment and capital protection.

Investing in the stock market is not a get rich quick game. It requires vision, patience and holding power. Invest in stocks is like running a business. You need time to build and expand the business; plus a good management team to do the work.

Instead of running the business on our own; our job at J&M is to spend time and effort to look for quality business at attractive price with good management team to work for us. Therefore, we invest in company who offer good dividend payout and the potential for business expansion.

Since we are in the finance industry, we love Stock Exchange, stock broking, securities and investment firms. We sold our shares in Apex Equity Holdings Bhd (MY: 5088), including dividend payout and capital appreciation, the return is 33 percent within a year. For a volatile market like this year, we are happy with such a return.

Buy on dips, market ended higher!

Forget the news from Paris! Retail and institutional investors took this opportunity to buy on dips. The market rebounded and finished off higher at the end of the week, although there was a panic selling on Monday!

Hang Seng Index broke below 22000 on Monday morning, but the market very quickly rebounded and ended higher on Friday. Closing at 22754.72, up 254.50 for cash market; the November futures contract finished at 22761 (+278). Range of the week for futures was traded between 21818-22822 (1004).

For KL market, cash closed at 1661.89 (+1.83), November futures closed down 2 at 1656.50. Spot futures was traded between 1634-1674.5 (40.5) last week.

Looking at the chart for Hang Seng and KLCI Index, they seems like on a downtrend channel. As next week is final week of the month, there will be futures contracts rollover and hence, we expect market to be volatile and range trading. 

For Hang Seng, upside resistant is at 23000, next 23500. Downside support 22250, next 21900. For KL market, the resistant are 1675 and 1700; support 1650 and lower-1625. 

Suntori Hibiki

We added two collectible items into our portfolio. Opps, it should be our collections in the mini bar. There are the limited edition Suntori Hibiki 17 years and Suntori Hibiki 21 years. Fresh from Japan!

US rate hike

The Federal Reserve had been talking about raising interest rate for months. We'll only know whether this ongoing topic will becomes a reality in coming December.

The US dollar has been the best performing currency for the year. Trading at 1USD= RM4.294 today, year to date Ringgit is almost 21 percent weaken against USD.

If the rate hike is confirmed in December, we are not surprised to see US Dollar surged above RM4.50 in short term. However, US dollar had rallied for a year. Short term correction might sent USD/RM below RM4, says around RM3.80. 

Since HK dollar is pegged to US dollar, we will convert more HK dollar for our Hong Kong portfolio if Ringgit is strengthened.

Suntory Yamazaki 18 Years

Apart from investing in stocks, currencies and properties; we are also interested in collectible items such as liquor and coca cola, just to name a few.

A year ago, we requested a friend who traveled to Japan bought us some Japanese Whisky- Suntory Yamazaki 18 years. At that time of buying, we just wanted to collect and display in our mini bar.

The whisky is intact and sitting in our mini bar. Recently we are surprised to find that the price had doubled as Yamazaki 18 years won the "Best in show other Whisky Category" and "Double Gold Medal Award" at the San Francisco World Spirits Competition. Not only that, thanks to weakening of our Ringgit, it is more expensive to buy now compare to a year ago.

We are glad we bought it. In the world of investing, sometimes it is not about the money we've made, it is about the future we can foresee, the right decision we made and most importantly, we execute what we analysed and planned.

Paris attacks

We are sorry to hear about what happened in Paris. Condolence to the victims and their families. For those who are in Paris, please stay safe.

Overnight Dow Jones closed down 202 at 17245. With weaknesses in market and what happened in Paris, we think market sentiments is no good and another round of selling might begin.

Hang Seng Index closed lower on Friday despite the news of recommendation to buy MSCI Hong Kong sent the market rallied 536 points on Thursday. HSI closed down 2.15% at 22396.14; November futures closed at 22319 (-586). Range of the week for futures was traded between 22243-22988 (745).

We expect market to open lower on Monday. Near support is 22000. If HSI unable to hold above 22000, further support is 21600. On the upside, 22400 is near resistant.

KLCI Index closed at 1658.91 (-4.29) while futures ended at 1654.50 (+2.50). Futures was traded between 1632.50-1691.00 (58.50) for the entire week. Resistant for KLCI is at 1675. On the downside, support for KLCI is seen at 1625, next 1590.

HSI rallies 536 points

Overnight Dow Jones closed down 55 points. After closing down for five consecutive days, Hang Seng Index today turned around the trend and rallied 536.75 points, closed at 22888.92. The November futures opened at 22301 and ended up 546 points at 22905. 

For us who are active in the futures market, we think Hang Seng Index is range trading around 22400-22900. Risk is lower for day traders; for overnight traders, they are either making big bucks or having whipsaw. It is important to exercise risk and capital management when in the market. 

At the current market condition, we think every dips is a buying opportunity and we will not chase into buying any stocks if the price had gone up. If we missed it, we'll give it a go and treasure hunt again. If we have paper profit, we'll consider to sell it, or hold on to it. No matter how, we'll have an exit price in our mind. 

We decided to sell Convoy Financial Service (HK: 1019), as the rally had brought us 11% profit within days. We might have a bigger profit tomorrow or later, but who knows?! We are happy to cash in now and look for better opportunities. 

As for KLCI Index, the cash market closed at 1663.2 (-2.12) and futures closed +1 at 1652. Spot futures was traded between 1638.5-1660.5 (22). 

US dragged down HSI

DJIA closed down 179.85 at 17730.48 on Monday closing. Following US, Hang Seng Index opened almost 200 points gap down this morning.

The cash market closed at 22401.70 at the end of the day, down 325.07. As for November futures, opened at 22430, highest reached 22467. Market went further down in the afternoon, lowest touched 22243 and closed at 22372 (-236).

Depending on how DJIA close tonight. We see 22000 as crucial support, upside resistant 22500, next level 22800.

There is no KLCI Index today, as it is Deepavali holiday in Malaysia.

Buy and sell OR buy and hold?

Do you always ask yourself, what is the investment strategy before you buy a stock. Buy and sell once you see profit? Or buy and hold for more profits? Is this mid to long term investment? Or short term speculation? It is important to have a plan before we enter the market. This is because human tends to be emotional when in the market, driven by fear-when market tumbles; by greed when market soars!

In a volatile market like Hong Kong market, we always set a target price to take profit; or a cut loss point to protect our capital. Even in a bull market, the paper profit can easily turns into paper loss if there is no investment or trading plan. Therefore, it is important to have an exit price, to secure the profit, to cash in and to grow the capital.

Different market requires different strategy. In a less volatile market like Malaysia market, ongoing buy sell not only hard to generate profit, it is also drain our mental energy. We'll only become brokers' best friend-by generating more commission and income for them. Sometimes, buy and hold is more suitable in Malaysia market. However, market changed and different strategy need to apply in different market condition. We have to adapt to market changes and act accordingly.

It is always a right move to exit market when we see paper profit, lock in the cash into our account. This is what we thought. We sold Emperor Capital Group (HK:717), made 8% return in less than two weeks. Not a bad deal. At least, it is better than fix deposit rate in Malaysia which is around 3.10% per year. Meanwhile, we parked our capital into another financial service company, Convoy Financial Holdings (HK:1019), an independent insurance and MPF schemes brokerage firm in Hong Kong.

For Hang Seng Index, it closed at 22726.77 (-140.56) and spot futures closed almost day low at 22608, down 130. Range of the day for Hang Seng futures is between 22598-22951 (353).

Market moving into consolidation soon

Hang Seng Index and its November futures contract closed at 22867.33 and 22738, respectively. The cash market closed down 183.71, futures down 225 points. Range of the week for futures was traded between 22230-23347 (1117).

Dow Jones rose 46 points on Friday closing at 17910. For HSI, we see Index will be moving between 21988 and 23482 if market break above 23000. Near support is at 22440.

There is another 8 trading weeks till we say hello to 2016. 2015 had been a volatile year, beginning with an uptrend, followed by a downtrend in second half of the year. It is not surprise to see market moving into consolidation from now or in a few weeks time, as fund managers and investors are closing their position, taking time off from the market till next year. 

For KLCI Index, cash market closed at 1685.70 (-2.84), futures closed +4.5 at 1686.50. The weekly range for this month futures contract was between 1646-1694.5 (48.5). Resistant for KLCI remained at 1725, immediate support 1675, next level 1640. 

Gold price is close to 5 year low

The Comex Gold is trading at $1106/oz, very close to one year low at $1085 back in August this year. Not only that, the current gold price is trading near five year low. The historical record price was at $1920 in August 2011. Since then, gold price is in declining stage. Looking at the chart, the current support is at $1050.  

The main factor affects gold price movement is the US interest rate. The rate hike will sent the gold price further down south whereas holding on the rate will see a break up in gold price. At this stage, we will not speculate in gold futures. In fact, we are interested in holding physical gold such as gold bar or gold jewellery from the retail shop. We believe this is the best bargain hunting and Christmas present. 

KLCI up 0.5% following regional market

Following DJIA and the regional markets in positive territory, KLCI Index broke the resistant 1680. Range of the day for spot futures contract traded between 1681-1690 (9), closed at 1689.50 (+14.5). For cash market, FBM KLCI closed at 1685.62 (+8.06). Resistant for KLCI is at 1725, next target 1750. On the downside, support is at 1650 and 1625.

It was rumours...

It was a roller coaster ride in Hong Kong market today. It wasn't the real announcement of Shenzen-Hong Kong connect; it was the spread of news according to an article written by PBOC goverver sited in May that SZ-HK connect will be launced latest by this year.

No short covering happened in the afternoon session. In fact, it was a turnaround trend- long liquidation!

HSI opened at 23200 and market dropped 319 points within minutes. Support at 22800, the lowest HSI went in second session was 22881 and finally November futures closed at 23115 (+535). Cash market closed at 23053.57 (+2.15%).

For stocks, Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HK:388) closed lower at $209, +4.7%. The Emperor Capital Group (HK:717) closed at $0.70, +9%.

HSI jumped 3% in morning session

Hong Kong market jumped 3% in the morning session. The market surged after the announcement of Shenzen-Hong Kong connect will be launched by this year. Cash market closed at 23272.66, +3.12% and November futures closed up 704 at 23284 in morning session. Range of the day for futures market is between 22661-23347 (686). Three day range for Hang Seng Index spot futures is 1117 points.

Will Hong Kong Index further up in the afternoon market? We believe it might if short covering happened. Resistant is at 23600. We see immediate support at 23000. Further down, 22800 previously was resistant  is now the next support.  

The Shenzen-Hong Kong news is favor to the finance and banking stocks. Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HK: 388) closed up 9% and most of the securities companies share price is positive, including the Emperor Capital Group (HK:717) we are holding, up 15% in the morning session. 

Let's see what happen to the market by today's closing. 

Shanghai Disneyland

Shanghai Disneyland is the 6th Disneyland which is scheduled to open in early 2016. This is a joint venture between The Walt Disney Company and the government owned Shanghai Sendi Group. The opening of new Disneyland in Shanghai will create many jobs opportunities and give Shanghai economy a boost, especially to the tourism and hotel industry.

As a result, Shanghai Jinjiang International Hotels Group (HK: 2006) listed in Hong Kong Stock Exchange is in advantage. The group has various hotels in Shanghai as well as other parts of China. As a subsidiary of Shanghai Sendi Group, it is also one of the biggest travel agency in China. 

The share price of Jinjiang Hotel closed at $2.71, +7.5% in Hong Kong market today. The one year range for the share price is between $2.02 and $4.14.

We believe the opening of upcoming Disneyland will bring in more business for Jinjiang Hotel Group. In long term, this is good for the company's share price.

The Best Investment

We think the best investments we made so far, is not from stocks, futures, properties, bonds or business...In fact, the best investment we made is invest on ourselves.

We could not have made money without proper financial knowledge. We could have made lots of mistakes and incurred heavy financial losses if we did not educate ourselves. We spent lots of time and effort in reading, researching, learning from successful people and implementing our strategy. Failed, start all over again and repeat all the processes...

Different financial instrument comes in handy at different stage of financial cycle. Without educating ourselves with appropriate risk management and know how and what should do, we could not have come so far along the financial journey.

Though we are not making billions right now, we are glad we are wealthy, living peacefully and happily, and most importantly, enjoying what we are doing.

The best investments is not invest to generate more money, it is to invest in ourselves, be healthy and happy.

What's next in November?

Traditionally, investors and fund managers will continue buying in November in order to present nice account balance during end of the year for their clients.

Since global stock markets retraced from 52 weeks high, it is rational to buy now rather to sell now.

However, since US Fed Reserve hold on the rate hike now and further discuss in December. Will investors and fund managers having the same view as years before to buy for window dressing? Is everyone getting cautious in the market? If it is time to raise rate, why is Fed keep the decision indecisive? 

Hang Seng cash market closed at 22640.04 (-179.90), November futures closed at 22684 (-78). Range of the week for futures market was between 22604-23419 (811). Overnight Dow Jones closed -92.26 at 17663.54. For Hang Seng Index, market will open lower on Monday. The first support we see is at 22450, further support is target at 21900. On the upside, any rebound will see market retest 22800- 23000.

For KLCI Index, cash market closed at 1665.71 (-1.27); November futures closed at 1663 (+8). We think there is a chance the support at 1640 will break and goes lower, further support-1615. On the upside, we remain resistant at 1680. Due to 1MDB issues, we think Malaysia market is having obstacles to break above 1800 in near term as investors confidence is the key factor to push up market. 

Though investors remain cautious at current market uncertainty, we think it's time to spend time and effort to do some treasure hunt.

US keep rate unchanged sent Asian Market lower?

The US Federal Reserve decided to keep the interest rate unchanged at the meeting last night. The news sent DJIA to closed higher at 17779 (+198).

Hang Seng Index opened high in the morning but market further retraced. Cash market closed lower at 22819.94 (-136.63). For October futures, it closed at 22897 (-81) whereas November futures closed at 22770 (-206). Range for November futures traded between 22753-23070 (317). Looks like HSI cannot sustains above 23000 and 23000 becomes the resistant again.

In Malaysia, 1700 became the resistant for KLCI Index. Range for October futures traded between 1661-1696 (35), closed @ 1663 (-27); cash market closed at 1666.98 (-19.53). Tomorrow is the expiry for October futures. Depending on how US perform tonight, we see support for KLCI at 1640, resistant 1680.

We think the market and economy is in a challenging time. With the news of banks and companies restructuring, cutting staffs and lowering costs etc, seems like economy is not doing well. These in turn affects companies' earning and their share price...

We think it's time to spend frugally and invest wisely.

ANZ Bank

We like bank shares for one reason. While market is not doing well, the attractive dividend is a bonus to sail through the hard time. When the worst is over, the share price soar and it is time to pocket the profit.

Australian banks are among global banks that did quite well after GFC. They posted positive profit, high dividend payout to shareholders and most importantly, share price broke higher than pre GFC historical high.

We bought Australian & New Zealand Bank share (AU: ANZ). The company reported $7.2 billion profit for this year, paying $0.95 per share to shareholders. At today's closing price at $28.17, this translates to 3.37%. This is only one time payout. ANZ bank releases dividend twice a year, in July and December. In order words, full year dividend is around 6.3%, which is way better than leaving money in savings account.

ANZ Bank focus their business in Australia and New Zealand, as well as the Asia region. We believe slowing economy in Asia might affect ANZ business in near future. Moreover, the higher capital requirement might put ANZ into a challenging environment. Anyway, since the share price retraced from 52 weeks high, also record high at $37.25 to 52 weeks low $26.38, we think it is ok to hold some ANZ shares. Near resistant target at $30-$32. If the share price broke $26, downside support $22.

We'll add our holdings when the price is down. Conversely, reduce the holdings when share price soar.

Investing vs Trading

Sometimes we think we have split personality when we look at market. One side of our brain tells us to look at big picture of the market outlook, be patience and look for value buy stocks; ignore the noise, sit tight and wait patiently to see our result. As a result, we have an investment portfolio where our time frame is mid to long term.

On the other hand, the other side of our brain tells us; while there is potential upside or downside in the market, we shouldn't sit there without doing anything. We should take the opportunities to look for trading signal, make use of the volatility to make money on price fluctuation. Therefore, we came out with a portfolio of short term trading in indices and commodities.

Each of the strategy requires different mindset and execution. To make money successfully in investment; we need to find out what are the stocks that have potential upside base on current price and fundamental of the companies. We need to know about the dividend yield; just in case market is not doing well, we have dividend payout as bonus. Then, base on technical chart, this provides a check point for us to enter the market. When we are in the market, next thing to do is sit tight, ignore the noises and price fluctuation, enjoy the journey and wait patiently. For this strategy, the time frame we are talking about is mid to long term. It could be months or years to see the result.

In the fast trading world, it is a different kind of mindset and strategy. We need to identify are we able to take risk and cope with losses if the market is against us. If we are ok with it, then we can proceed to the game. If not, keep the capital and look for other option.

In trading, a trading plan is crucial to support us before we enter the market. We need to know where is our target price if we are right, in other words, we need to know where to exit the market to secure our profit. Meanwhile, if we are wrong, we need to have a cut loss point; to stop our losses in order to protect our capital.

It is easier to say than execute. This is because human tends to be emotional when in the market, be it making paper loss or paper profit. Therefore, discipline and risk management are important to help us in trading successfully.

Is there a chance we'll lose all our capital? There is a possibility if we are not discipline in following our trading plan. When it's time to take profit, but our greed kicks in and we cancel our order; is time to cut loss, but we refuse to do that in order to believe the market will favor us...These funny funny action will jeopardize our trading capital. 

We know it takes time to build our wealth; and it takes second to destroy it. Hence, J&M investment portfolio is a slow and steady race. Our trading portfolio, we believe with a good trading plan, combine with discipline and risk management, we can slowly increase our capital. The worst thing can happen is we lose all of our trading capital and we will not trade with margin lending. Just like when you go casino, you walk out from casino with your winning and a happy face; but never ever walk out with sad face plus borrow money if you lost all the capital.

HSI closed down 35 on China rate cut

HSI opened gap up in the morning. Market cheer on the news of interest rate cut & RRR reduced. The highest we saw was 23423.64 for cash market; futures highest 23415. However, profit taking came in and we started to see decline in HSI.

As we mentioned earlier, the market rebounded almost 3000 points since the first day of October. It is normal for investors to take profit and sellers came in to short sell the market. HSI dropped to lowest at 23036 in the afternoon, closed almost day low @ 23043 (-137) for October futures while cash market closed -35 @ 23116.

We sold half of our holding from Bank Of China, pocket some of the profit and will see how it goes. If the market further rally, we still have half of the holding and other Chinese Bank shares from ICBC and ABC. HSI need to go through correction in order to move higher. If correction come, we'll continue adding our portfolio according to market condition.

China Cut Interest Rate and RRR

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced yesterday to cut China's interest rate and to reduce bank's Reserve Ratio Requirement (RRR). This is the 6th time China reduced interest rate since November 2014 to stimulate economy.

When the news was released on Friday, DJIA futures rose more than 100 points before market opened and night market for Hang Seng Index futures surged up; closed at 23460 (+280). 

We think the news is positive for Chinese bank shares and we believe the top four Chinese banks listed in Hang Seng Index-- China Construction Bank (CCB), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), Bank Of China (BOC) and Bank of Communications will lead the surge on Monday. 

DJIA closed +157 on Friday while Hang Seng Index closed +306 @ 23151.94. We see Hang Seng Index will move higher on Monday because of this news and we see resistant at 23880. October futures closed at 23180 (+336); range of the week for October futures traded between 22710-23289 (579). Since next week is final week of October and it is rollover week for spot and next month futures contract, we see support for HSI at 22850. Further support 22450.

Budget Malaysia 2016

The 2016 Budget Malaysia is a defensive budget as the government need to allocate and spend our Ringgit wisely during this challenging time. It is hard to cheer everyone from the Budget; one thing for sure, cost of living will be higher from next year.

High income earner will be paying more income tax and low income citizens will have more financial subsidy compare to this year. No matter which income group we are in, it is important to save and invest for ourselves, rather than relying on government subsidy.

Minimum wage will be increased effectively from next year. As a result, labor cost will be higher and business owner will transfer the cost to consumers and hence, things will be more expensive. We believe the business in food and beverage, retail industry and service industry will be affected.

Because of this, we foresee there will be more vacancy in properties. Business owner will consider shift out from existing rental property or look for alternative as rental cost is one of the main expenditure in business. So, property owners, please do not raise rental and keep your tenant happy in order to keep your wallet happy!

A way to stay in business without paying rental is to work from home. Of course, not every business will have the advantage to do that. For this to happen, business owner need to rely on good internet connection to stay in touch with customers. We think it is an opportunity to invest in telecommunication shares, especially the blue chips- Maxis and Digi! 

For KLCI Index, we still see the resistant at 1730 and 1750. Support, 1680 and further down 1650. Do we have the chance to see 1800 by end of the year? We shall see.

Emperor Capital Group

Something interesting to share about Hong Kong market we noticed this year!

Hang Seng Index was ranging between 23000-24500 from January to April. After Easter holiday break, trading volume surged and a mini bull run began and brought the market to 28589. The uptrend in mid April last till end of June. As soon as after 1st of July holiday, the trend turned around. Buyers took profit; short sellers came in, a downtrend occurred and it lasted for months.

Then, came to 1st of October, National Day! Another public holiday for Hong Kong market! Hang Seng Index rebounded from 52 weeks low-20368 till this Tuesday- 23161, a day before Chung Yeung festival holiday!

There is no public holiday after yesterday for Hong Kong market until Christmas and New Year break where the trading activity is lowest for the year. What will the trend be from now till Christmas? The rebound continues? The rebound is done and here comes another downtrend? We are curious to find out! Seems like every holiday marks a new trend for Hang Seng Index! 

It is an exciting year for Hong Kong market. It had been a financially and mentally roller coaster ride for investors; the uptrend and downtrend provided trading opportunities for traders no matter is in stocks, futures or option market. If there is any particular stock we are interested, Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HK:388) is one of them. Volatile market presents making money opportunity which, this is good for HK Stock Exchange's business. Closed at $203.60, HKSE is 34% down from its historical price at $311.

Apart from HKEX, securities companies are the one that is benefited during busy market days. We bought Emperor Capital Group (HK:717), one of the leading financial broker house in Hong Kong. Trading at P/E ratio at 11, the share price went from $0.40 a year ago to $2.32 in April. Now, price at $0.69. 

We do not expect HK:717 goes back to $2.32 anytime soon. We think the share price will consolidate between $0.50-$0.75 for the time being. Hence, it is an opportunity to slowly collect the share before another uptrend begins.

What to expect in 2016 Budget?

After GST implementation in Malaysia since April 2015, Malaysians are struggling with the increasing cost of living. More expensive food and dining out, toll hike, weakening Ringgit and not to mention stagnant property price and stock market crash. We are wondering is this only happen in Malaysia? Does other countries having the same problem?

Our Prime Minister is going to announce 2016 Budget on this coming Friday. While all Malaysians are hoping for better policies which can reduce financial burden; we are afraid expectation bring disappointment.

KLCI Index rebounded from 1504 to 1728, about 14% within two months. Will 2016 Budget announcement continue the uptrend? Or it is leading to another sell down?

FBM KLCI today closed @ 1705.03 (-13.17) while October KLCI futures closed below 1700 at 1692 (-23). October futures range between 1689.5-1719 (29.50). We see immediate resistant for KLCI at 1730, second resistant 1750. Immediate support is at 1675, further support 1640.

Can HSI sustain above 23000?

Hang Seng Index finally broke above 22800 on Thursday 15th Oct. The market continue its gain and closed @ 23067.37 (+179.20) on Friday. As for October futures contract, it closed @ 23100 (+188). The range for spot month futures was between 22931-23132 (201).

Can HSI sustains above 23000? As market moved 2027 points since the first trading day of October, we believe profit taking or correction could happen.

Dow Jones closed +74 @ 17215 on Friday. For HSI in the coming week, 23000 is an important support. Break below this level will see 22800 and further support 22450. On the upside, near resistant is at 23300 and SMA 100- 23800 is a crucial resistant.

Bank Of China

Bank Of China (HK:3988) is one of our favourite Chinese bank shares. Listed in both Shanghai Composite Index and Hang Seng Index, it is one of the top 4 Chinese bank which is aggressively expanding to overseas.

With P/E ratio at 5, it is not only a high dividend bank shares, the price also has the potential to go up. Since BOC HK3988 retraced from 52 weeks high at HK$5.68 in April to 52 weeks low at $3.25 in September; we think the 42% correction presents a buying opportunity. While we might not see a lower price than $3.25 from now, we are happy to hold 3988 for mid to long term. 

Confidence Crisis

Although it is a public holiday in Malaysia, we still make an effort in monitoring the market, especially Hang Seng and Nikkei.

We think the market is in another crisis. Not only financial crisis, but confidence crisis. Since the correction began in second half of the year from The States, European regions and Asia Pacific, are the markets in bear market? Or it is the beginning of another bull market that will last for years? 

FBM KLCI is one of the market that successfully broke 2008 record high after experienced 40% correction during 2008 global financial crisis. Because of recent 1MDB issue, will the local or foreign investors still have confidence in our local stock market? While KLCI is at 1711, ~8.4% off historical high; looking at this stage, will we see a record high soon?

There are cheap shares in the market, whether is blue chips, second or third liner stocks; no matter is in Hang Seng Index, KLCI or other markets. If we have the patience and holding power, we can slowly accumulate these quality stocks. When we look back in 5-10 years from now, we would be surprised, how far the price had gone up...

Patience, discipline and risk management

Thanks to the advancement of internet, we manage to learn and invest globally.

Although J&M base in Malaysia, not only we invest in the local market, we made full use of the resources from internet and expand our portfolio globally.

To achieve financial freedom, the most important thing is to educate ourselves with proper financial knowledge. We begin with understanding ourselves and our risk profile; create an investment plan and strategy, and finally execute according to the plan and review every now and then.

We believe in creating wealth through buying undervalue stocks; creating cash flow through holding quality stocks and receiving dividend. We also hedge through short selling futures when market goes through correction. Of course, saying is easier than doing. Over the years, we made a lot of mistakes and we are still in the learning process.

It is not the matter of right or wrong in stock selection or short selling futures. It is the risk management. How much you made if you are right and how much you lose if you are wrong. Patience, discipline and risk management are what we learn throughout the years. Not to forget, we must have the passion and enjoy what we do.

HSI Immediate resistant @ 22800

Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (HK:2800), an ETF listed in HKSE that moves closely according to the performance of Hang Seng Index had moved about 10 percent since 30th Sept 2015. The fund today closed at $23.55, +1.5%. 

The movement of the fund follows very closely to Hang Seng Index. After a few days of trying, Hang Seng Index unable to break above 22800. The cash market today closed @ 22730.93 (+272.13). For October futures, the range of the day falls between 22448-22759 (311), closed @ 22658 (+255), 73 points discount from cash market. 

22800 is the immediate resistant for HSI for the time being. If there's any good news from Dow Jones tonight or Dow Jones close above 100 points end of the day, there's a chance we'll see 22800 or perhaps 23000 or higher. If not, we might afraid market moves back to 22000, or lower to 21500. 

Hang Seng Index closed +3.13%

Target reached! 

Hang Seng Index managed to hold above 22000 and closed @ 22515.76 (+684.14), with the turnover of $108.67 billion, an amount not seen in a month. The lowest for the day was 21817.42 in the morning and market went as high as 22527.79 in the afternoon. October futures contract closed +709@ 22473, range of the day between 21755-22492 (737). 

Dow Jones last seen +27.99 @ 16818.18. For tomorrow's HSI, we think it'll test a higher level, resistant 22800. Downside support--22180.

Ringgit Malaysia

Most currencies devalued against USD lately, but Ringgit Malaysia (RM) has been the worst performing currency among South East Asia currencies. As of today, 1USD is equivalent to RM4.27 whereas in August 2014, USD/RM was 3.15; a total devalued of up to 35%. It is a good news if you are holding USD. But, as a Malaysian, our purchasing power had decreased. 

While RM was strong few years back, we took the opportunity to travel overseas. Not only that, we converted RM to a basket of foreign currencies; SGD, AUD and HKD just to name a few. 

We've converted our SGD back to RM and made a small profit. We are still holding our foreign currencies and not consider to add on for the time being, unless it comes to an attractive level. We will continue monitoring the basket of currencies and make decision according to market condition.

Hang Seng Index

Thanks to overnight Dow Jones closed +300, we manage to see Hang Seng Index went above 22000 this morning. However, profit taking came in after Hang Seng Index was up since first trading day in October. Cash market closed at 21831.62 (-22.88) while October futures contract closed at 21764 (-82), range of the day between 21682- 22149 (467). Hong Kong market was the only Asia market closed in red. 

DJIA is +12 points at the moment, we think tomorrow HSI will try to test 22000 again; the downside support is at 21300, next level 21100. After months of selling pressure where 52 weeks high for HSI is at 28589, we think fund managers and investors are trying to buy for year end window dressing. 

The immediate resistant for HSI we see is at 22500, the next target is at 24000. If there's no major bad news from US or China, we think this year low for HSI will remain at 20368. We will slowly collect some shares for window dressing too.

Rich Dad Poor Dad

Rich Dad Poor Dad was written by Robert Kiyosaki and was published in year 2000. It was one of the best selling book talks about personal finance and investing. In real life, there is always Rich Dad and Poor Dad surrounding us. Poor Dad emphasizes on the importance of education and secure your life with a safe and stable job while Rich Dad sees the importance of investment and financial management.

The formation of J&M Investments partly was influenced by the real life of the Rich Dad and Poor Dad we witnessed personally. Rich Dad retired 20 years ago and up until today he has no financial issue. He doesn't rely on the funding from social security or money given by his children and yet he manage to travel overseas very often. He enjoys the financial and time freedom by doing what he likes without working from any company. 

On the other hand, Poor Dad retired 10 years ago from the company he had worked for more than 20 years. Unfortunately, due to miss management of his savings and retirement funds; he had enjoyed the retirement life for only 2 years, after that was involved in a financial disaster. 

You think Rich Dad Poor Dad only happens in the book Robert Kiyosaki wrote? Nah..It happens in our real life too. Because of Poor Dad, we had the opportunity to study hard, excel in our education and landed a high income job. And because of Rich Dad, we foresee our future living in financial freedom, enjoy spending time with our love one and enjoy doing what we love to. 

We think we are on the right path, but still long way from our goal and destination. Investment is a life long journey, we need to learn as we go; learn from our investment mistakes and celebrate our winnings. Learn from the pasts and enjoy the ups and downs.

Last Quarter of 2015

Most markets closed up in the first week of 4th quarter 2015, after weeks of trending down since end of May. Hang Seng Index was one of the best performing among all the markets, after taking a break from National Holidays, it closed +659 points, equivalent to 3.17%. 

However, Hang Seng Index had retraced 24% from its 52 weeks high back in April. Speaking about that, Hang Seng Index was not as bad as Shanghai Composite Index. After the bull run took off early beginning of the year, Shanghai composite Index year to date experienced losses of 41% from its 52 weeks high. Not only that, DJIA, the European Index and other Asian indices too, down from their 52 weeks high. 

As an investors, definitely not happy seeing the paper losses since the second half of the year. As a traders, the volatility presents opportunities to make money. Of course, it comes with risk too. 

There is 13 trading weeks left till a brand new year 2016. So, what should we do now? What can we buy now? To buy now or later? How long do we want to hold it for?

For us at J&M, we would like to look for undervalue stocks where the fundamental of the company still looks good despite the sell down in the past few months. Another options would be high dividend yield blue chips stocks where the price had come to a lower price. To make things easier, we will definitely consider index related funds, such as HK:2800 Tracker Fund of Hong Kong.

Hello & Welcome!

Hello and welcome to J&M Investments!

We are full time investors who work from home; look for all sorts of making money opportunities in the market, be it in the equities, futures trading, currencies or property market. 

We do not represent any financial institutions and we do not hold any valid licensed to provide financial advice. This is just a personal blog for sharing our thoughts and investment ideas. Please make your own judgement or consult your financial advisers before making any financial decisions. 

Happy reading and happy investing!