Sell in May!

The market was declining since first trading day of May. The effect of Sell in May...

In Hong Kong, Hang Seng Index May futures ended at 20049 (+74) at today's closing; cash market gained 46.94, closed at 20156.81. Range of the week for Hang Seng Index futures last week was recorded between 19887- 20987 (1100). The market broke the support of 20000. Where is market heading from here? 

Market is oversold. It is not surprise to see a rebound in HSI...But after that, is the sell down continue ? Or it is time to slowly collect shares? We see the resistance at 20250, next at 20500 and higher at 20800. On the downside, supports are 19800, next 19400.

In Malaysia, KLCI May futures was traded between 1629.0-1667.0 (38.0) last week. At today's closing, futures closed at 1629.50, lost 11.50 points while cash market ended at 1632.19 (-17.17). Immediate support is found at 1625, next support is 1600. On the upside, market will retest 1648. Higher resistance 1665.

Currently, we are hedging in the futures market. Sell when market rebound and buy on dips. We are monitoring the share market and will slowly collect at the right time. Our portfolio still consists of dividend stocks, REITS, foreign currencies, cash and properties. We will reallocate the percentage of holding according to the market condition.

Sell off on first trading day of the month

Despite Wall Street posted a gain of 117.52 points last night, the Asia market ended with a mixed result. Especially for the market who enjoyed a long weekend, first day of the month actually begin with a terrible sell off.

The worst performer is Nikkei who lost 518.67 or 3.11 percent at today's closing. Hang Seng Index broke 21000; settled at 20676.94, lost 390.11 points or 1.85 percent. FBM KLCI Index broke our predicted support; finished down 21.28 points at 1651.44.

The May futures contract for Hang Seng Index ended at 20545 (-309). Range of the day was traded between 20502-20984 (482). Immediate support for HSI is 20450. Next crucial support is 20000. As for KLCI spot futures, market ended at 1642.00, lost 20.50 points, about 1.27 percent. Near support is seen at 1640.0, further support is 1600.

Dow Jones falls 180 points at the moment. Will we see a further drop or recovery by tomorrow morning? Looks like another volatile selling is happening...

KLCI went further south...

FBM KLCI Index went further south today. Can we blame the news of bond default? The news shaken investors confidence, created an opportunity for market sell off. Cash market lost 17.58 points or 1.04 percent at the end of the day, April futures lost 23 points settled at 1670.50 while May futures contract ended at 1662.50 (-24.00).

In Hong Kong, futures market was a volatile trading session as today is the expiry of the April futures contract. Spot futures settled at 21470 (+180) while May futures contract finished at 21118 (-7). Range of the day for May contract was traded between 21122-21567 (445). The cash market gained 26.43 points finished at 21388.03.

Looks like Hang Seng Index is supported well above 21000 for the time being. But next month? Will we see higher high? Or lower low?

FBM KLCI Index is oversold within these few days. Will we see a rebound soon? 

FBM KLCI Index closed below 1700

We mentioned yesterday that FBM KLCI Index need a breakup or breakdown to break the boring trading range. Finally, we saw a breakthrough this afternoon thanks to 1MDB scandal - the default of $1.75 billion bond!

The spot futures open at 1712.0 in the morning, highest touched 1713. Futures contracts rollover activity plus the default news pressed the market all the way to 1702 in the morning session.  The support at 1700 couldn't hold on anymore. We saw market lowest went to 1690.0 before futures settled at 1691.0, lost 22 points. Cash market closed at 1692.50 (-22.01).

Immediate resistance for KLCI is seen at 1698. Higher resistance at 1706. On the downside, near support 1675, next 1650. Ringgit was weaker, last seen 1USD~ RM3.91.

Sell in May go away?

Market was range trading for the past one week. For Hang Seng Index, it manage to hold above 21000. The trading range for Hang Seng Index futures last week was traded between 21021-21664 (643). No matter how market falls, HSI is trading above daily MA10-21260, a sign of market is moving on a buying signal. The futures settled at 21291, lost 190 points at today's closing. For cash market, finished at 21304.44 (-162.60).

This week is the final week of the month. The futures market will start the contracts rollover activities and the long weekend is coming. How will the market moves? Will we see a higher high next week next month? Bear in mind, next month is May. The market is always spooked by the saying of "Sell in May and go away". Plus, Hong Kong market had been up since Chinese New Year, does it mean another correction coming?

Anyway, we sold Emperor Capital (HK:717) after a 10 percent profit within a month. We will look at it again if Sell in May comes. If not, we still have other stocks in hand for dividend collection in the second half of the year.

If 21500 had become resistance, 21000 is an important support for HSI. Further supports are seen at 20800, next 20450. On the upside, if market broke above recent high 21664, market will moves towards 21800, next target 22000. 

In Malaysia, FBM KLCI was ranging between 1700-1725 for the past one month. At today's closing, cash market closed at 1714.51, lost 3.45 points. The spot futures finished at 1713 (-6.50). KLCI Index need a breakthrough. The market need to break above 1730 to see a new trend. If not, breaking below 1700 will see supports at 1675, next 1650.

All Asian markets ended in green

After overnight Dow Jones closed up 164.84 @ 17721.25, today all Asian market ended in positive territory. Hong Kong market is the best performing market, surged 3.19 percent, Nikkei closed up 2.84 percent and Shanghai ended up 1.44 percent.

Hong Kong April futures market opened gap up 239 points in the morning. Lowest traded at 20691, market went highest reaching 21223 at the end of the trading day and finally settled at 21216, surged 746 points or 3.64 percent. Cash market finished at 21158.71, up 654.27.

In Malaysia, KLCI Index futures was traded between 1716.5-1724.5 (8.0). Futures closed up 7.5 points at 1721. Cash market gained 8.11 points settled at 1723.11.

Will market moves higher? Technically, Hang Seng Index broke crucial resistance- daily MA100-20557 and 21000. There is a chance market will move higher; with on and off profit taking comes in. Immediate resistance for HSI is at 21300, next 21500. On the downside, supports are 21080, next 20850.

KLCI Index still ranging between 1700-1725. This market need to break above 1730 to see a higher trading zone. 

Resistance ahead

It was a choppy week again for the market. The range of the week for Hang Seng Index spot futures was traded between 19967-20835 (868); while for KLCI Index futures, trading range was between 1704.5-1723.0 (18.5).

For those who are holding stocks, there might be no big difference in price fluctuation, unless the speculation stocks you are holding moved dramatically. For those who are in index trading, it is a good opportunity to make money provided you stand on the right side; if not stay away from volatility if you couldn't take it. It could be a bored session in the market if the stocks you are holding is not moving yet. But, be patience.

We see Hong Kong market might consolidate between 20000-21000; and for KL market, index will range between 1700-1730 in short term. The market need catalysts to break the upside resistance or downside support...

Ringgit is strengthened against USD again as we can see 1USD~RM3.88 today. We will monitor the currency market closely.

Since we just bought a property last week, we'll be spending more time in our new portfolio compare to the current market. However, we are trying to be multitasking so we wouldn't miss out any making money opportunity.